Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Payton Talbott won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 18, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Payton Talbott wins(79.9%)
Actual result: Payton Talbott wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Payton Talbott has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Payton Talbott (54.1%).
- Nick Aguirre has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Payton Talbott
Red Corner
VS
Nick Aguirre
Blue Corner
-900
(90%)
Vegas Odds
+600
(14%)
27
Age
30
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Payton TalbottW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Cameron Saaiman · Mar 24W
KOvs Yanis Ghemmouri · Jun 24L
vs Raoni Barcelos · Jan 25W
vs Felipe Lima · Jun 25W
vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 25Nick Aguirre
oldest →latest
L
vs Dan Argueta · Jan 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Payton TalbottMetricNick Aguirre
6.62
Strikes / min
0.73
3.41
Strikes absorbed / min
2.89
46%
Strike defense
45%
0.78
TDs / 15 min
1.16
77%
Takedown defense
33%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+3.21Δ 5.37 — meaningful gap-2.16
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Payton TalbottNick Aguirre
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Payton Talbott(6 fights)Nick Aguirre(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+16.7-16.7
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.8-49.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.7-49.7
Payton Talbott
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights6
Nick Aguirre
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights2