Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Payton Talbott enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Raoni Barcelos enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Raoni Barcelos has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Payton Talbott (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Payton TalbottW5 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Nick Aguirre · Nov 23W
KOvs Cameron Saaiman · Mar 24W
KOvs Yanis Ghemmouri · Jun 24W
vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 25 Raoni BarcelosW4 streak
oldest →L
vs Kyler Phillips · Aug 23W
SUBvs Cristian Quinonez · Feb 24W
vs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 25W
DECvs Montel Jackson · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Payton TalbottMetricRaoni Barcelos
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+3.21Δ 2.80 — meaningful gap+0.41
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Payton TalbottRaoni Barcelos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Payton Talbott(6 fights)Raoni Barcelos(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -14.2|Blue +14.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -126.0|Blue +126.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Payton TalbottTargetRaoni Barcelos
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Raoni Barcelos edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
8Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
4:51Control
Round 2Raoni Barcelos edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:35Control
Round 3Raoni Barcelos edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control1:25
37Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:17Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
