Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Raoni Barcelos won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 18, 2025·Inglewood, California, USA, USA
Style matchupPayton Talbott: Well-roundedvsRaoni Barcelos: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Payton Talbott wins(75.4%)
Actual result: Raoni Barcelos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Payton Talbott enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Raoni Barcelos enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Raoni Barcelos has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Payton Talbott (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Payton Talbott
Red Corner
VS
Raoni Barcelos
Blue Corner
-1200
(92%)
Vegas Odds
+750
(12%)
27
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'7"
177.8 cm
Reach
170.18 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Payton TalbottW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Nick Aguirre · Nov 23W
KOvs Cameron Saaiman · Mar 24W
KOvs Yanis Ghemmouri · Jun 24W
vs Felipe Lima · Jun 25W
vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 25Raoni BarcelosW3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 23L
vs Kyler Phillips · Aug 23W
SUBvs Cristian Quinonez · Feb 24W
vs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 25W
vs Ricky Simon · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Payton TalbottMetricRaoni Barcelos
6.62
Strikes / min
4.65
3.41
Strikes absorbed / min
4.24
46%
Strike defense
60%
0.78
TDs / 15 min
2.51
77%
Takedown defense
87%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+3.21Δ 2.80 — meaningful gap+0.41
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Payton TalbottRaoni Barcelos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Payton Talbott(6 fights)Raoni Barcelos(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+11.8-11.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-126.0126.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Payton Talbott
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights6
Raoni Barcelos
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights14