Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Phil Davis won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 26, 2011·Seattle, Washington, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Phil Davis wins(59.3%)
Actual result: Phil Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Phil Davis has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).
- Phil Davis has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Phil Davis
Red Corner
VS
Rogerio Nogueira
Blue Corner
-255
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+235
(30%)
41
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'2"
200.66 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Phil Davis
oldest →latest
W
vs Vinny Magalhaes · Apr 13W
vs Lyoto Machida · Aug 13L
vs Anthony Johnson · Apr 14W
vs Glover Teixeira · Oct 14L
vs Ryan Bader · Jan 15Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16L
KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16W
KOvs Sam Alvey · Sep 18L
KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19L
vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Phil DavisMetricRogerio Nogueira
2.85
Strikes / min
2.43
1.33
Strikes absorbed / min
2.34
72%
Strike defense
59%
2.99
TDs / 15 min
0.64
72%
Takedown defense
62%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.52Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap+0.09
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Phil DavisRogerio Nogueira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Phil Davis(10 fights)Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+45.9-45.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-56.056.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Phil Davis
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights11
Rogerio Nogueira
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12