Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ryan Bader won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 24, 2015·Stockholm, Sweden, Sweden
Style matchupPhil Davis: WrestlervsRyan Bader: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Phil Davis wins(53.6%)
Actual result: Ryan Bader wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Phil Davis has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Phil Davis
Red Corner
VS
Ryan Bader
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
41
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'2"
200.66 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Phil Davis
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Wagner Prado · Oct 12W
vs Vinny Magalhaes · Apr 13W
vs Lyoto Machida · Aug 13L
vs Anthony Johnson · Apr 14W
vs Glover Teixeira · Oct 14Ryan BaderW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Ovince Saint Preux · Aug 14W
vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15L
KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16W
KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16W
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Phil DavisMetricRyan Bader
2.85
Strikes / min
2.82
1.33
Strikes absorbed / min
1.39
72%
Strike defense
71%
2.99
TDs / 15 min
3.37
72%
Takedown defense
80%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.52evenly matched on net striking+1.43
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Phil DavisRyan Bader
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Phil Davis(10 fights)Ryan Bader(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+28.8-28.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-70.070.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Phil Davis
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights11
Ryan Bader
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16