Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Phil Davis won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, October 13, 2012·Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Phil Davis wins(57.1%)
Actual result: Phil Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Phil Davis has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Phil Davis has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Wagner Prado (53.5%).
- Phil Davis has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Phil Davis
Red Corner
VS
Wagner Prado
Blue Corner
-355
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+320
(24%)
41
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'0"
200.66 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Phil Davis
oldest →latest
W
vs Vinny Magalhaes · Apr 13W
vs Lyoto Machida · Aug 13L
vs Anthony Johnson · Apr 14W
vs Glover Teixeira · Oct 14L
vs Ryan Bader · Jan 15Wagner Prado
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Ildemar Alcantara · Jan 13Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Phil DavisMetricWagner Prado
2.85
Strikes / min
1.72
1.33
Strikes absorbed / min
3.06
72%
Strike defense
50%
2.99
TDs / 15 min
0.00
72%
Takedown defense
22%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.52Δ 2.86 — meaningful gap-1.34
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Phil DavisWagner Prado
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Phil Davis(10 fights)Wagner Prado(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+42.5-42.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-47.447.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.449.4
Phil Davis
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights11
Wagner Prado
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights2