Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Ariane Carnelossi won · DQ R2
UFC Event·Saturday, May 18, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Piera Rodriguez wins(57.4%)
Actual result: Ariane Carnelossi wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Piera Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Piera Rodriguez has 59pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Piera Rodriguez
Red Corner
VS
Ariane Carnelossi
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'2"
160.02 cm
Reach
154.94 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Piera RodriguezW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Sam Hughes · Oct 22L
SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Apr 23W
vs Josefine Knutsson · Dec 24W
vs Ketlen Souza · Aug 25W
vs Sam Hughes · Mar 26Ariane CarnelossiL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Angela Hill · Sep 19W
KOvs Na Liang · Apr 21W
SUBvs Istela Nunes · Oct 21L
vs Loopy Godinez · May 22L
SUBvs Talita Alencar · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Piera RodriguezMetricAriane Carnelossi
4.04
Strikes / min
2.63
3.13
Strikes absorbed / min
4.61
53%
Strike defense
44%
4.04
TDs / 15 min
1.08
81%
Takedown defense
22%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.91Δ 2.89 — meaningful gap-1.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Piera RodriguezAriane Carnelossi
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Piera Rodriguez(7 fights)Ariane Carnelossi(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+15.8-15.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-343.0343.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Piera Rodriguez
StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights7
Ariane Carnelossi
StanceOrthodox
Height62.0"
Reach61.0"
Fights6