Lightweight
3 Rounds
Rafa Garcia won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 13, 2025·San Antonio, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupRafa Garcia: WrestlervsJared Gordon: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Jared Gordon wins(57.6%)
Actual result: Rafa Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafa Garcia has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Rafa Garcia
Red Corner
VS
Jared Gordon
Blue Corner
+152
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-180
(64%)
31
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafa Garcia
oldest →latest
L
vs Drakkar Klose · Jul 22W
vs Maheshate · Dec 22W
vs Clay Guida · Apr 23L
KOvs Grant Dawson · Oct 24W
vs Vinc Pichel · Mar 25Jared Gordon
oldest →latest
W
vs Leonardo Santos · Aug 22L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 22W
KOvs Mark Madsen · Nov 23L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Jun 24W
KOvs Thiago Moises · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafa GarciaMetricJared Gordon
4.28
Strikes / min
5.57
4.42
Strikes absorbed / min
4.11
61%
Strike defense
55%
3.22
TDs / 15 min
1.91
77%
Takedown defense
60%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.14Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap+1.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafa GarciaJared Gordon
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafa Garcia(10 fights)Jared Gordon(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-23.523.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+49.0-49.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Rafa Garcia
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10
Jared Gordon
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights16