Lightweight
3 Rounds
Rafa Garcia won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, April 16, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRafa Garcia: WrestlervsJesse Ronson: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Rafa Garcia wins(65.9%)
Actual result: Rafa Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafa Garcia has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jesse Ronson (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Rafa Garcia
Red Corner
VS
Jesse Ronson
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
31
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafa GarciaW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Maheshate · Dec 22W
vs Clay Guida · Apr 23L
KOvs Grant Dawson · Oct 24W
vs Vinc Pichel · Mar 25W
KOvs Jared Gordon · Sep 25Jesse Ronson
oldest →latest
L
vs Michel Prazeres · Sep 13L
vs Francisco Trinaldo · Feb 14L
vs Kevin Lee · Jul 14W
SUBvs Nicolas Dalby · Jul 20L
KOvs Joaquim Silva · Oct 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafa GarciaMetricJesse Ronson
4.28
Strikes / min
3.54
4.42
Strikes absorbed / min
3.39
61%
Strike defense
57%
3.22
TDs / 15 min
0.46
77%
Takedown defense
57%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.14evenly matched on net striking+0.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafa GarciaJesse Ronson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafa Garcia(10 fights)Jesse Ronson(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+17.6-17.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-483.0483.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Rafa Garcia
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10
Jesse Ronson
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights6