Lightweight
3 Rounds
Rafa Garcia won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 17, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRafa Garcia: WrestlervsMaheshate: Striker
Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Rafa Garcia wins(61.7%)
Actual result: Rafa Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafa Garcia has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rafa Garcia has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Rafa Garcia
Red Corner
VS
Maheshate
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
31
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
6'0"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafa GarciaW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Drakkar Klose · Jul 22W
vs Clay Guida · Apr 23L
KOvs Grant Dawson · Oct 24W
vs Vinc Pichel · Mar 25W
KOvs Jared Gordon · Sep 25MaheshateL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Steve Garcia · Jun 22L
KOvs Viacheslav Borshchev · May 23W
vs Gabriel Benitez · Apr 24L
vs Nikolas Motta · Nov 24L
vs Gauge Young · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafa GarciaMetricMaheshate
4.28
Strikes / min
3.96
4.42
Strikes absorbed / min
5.96
61%
Strike defense
51%
3.22
TDs / 15 min
0.00
77%
Takedown defense
47%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.14Δ 1.86 — meaningful gap-2.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafa GarciaMaheshate
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafa Garcia(10 fights)Maheshate(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-31.331.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-49.049.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Rafa Garcia
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10
Maheshate
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights6