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Lightweight
3 Rounds
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Elo1531
Rafa Garcia
Elo1510
Rongzhu

Rafa GarciavsRongzhuUFC Prediction

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · Saturday, September 12, 2026Glendale, USA

Fight begins in
Style matchupRafa Garcia: WrestlervsRongzhu: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

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Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rafa Garcia enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Rafa Garcia
Red Corner
VS
Rongzhu
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1531
Elo
1510
32
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafa GarciaW3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Clay Guida · Apr 23
L
KOvs Grant Dawson · Oct 24
W
vs Vinc Pichel · Mar 25
W
KOvs Jared Gordon · Sep 25
W
DECvs Alexander Hernandez · Apr 26
latest
RongzhuW2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Feb 22
L
KOvs Chris Padilla · Sep 24
W
vs Kody Steele · Feb 25
W
vs Austin Hubbard · Aug 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafa GarciaMetricRongzhu
4.28
Strikes / min
6.02
4.42
Strikes absorbed / min
5.44
61%
Strike defense
52%
3.22
TDs / 15 min
1.35
77%
Takedown defense
84%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.14evenly matched on net striking+0.58
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Rafa Garcia(10 fights)Rongzhu(6 fights)

Method Projection

Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: KO / TKO.

KO / TKO49%

Neither fighter relies on finishes — likely a decision.

Submission35%

Historical win share: Rafa Garcia earned 14% of wins by submission.

Decision16%

Both fighters frequently end fights early.

Rafa Garcia

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11

Rongzhu

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4