Lightweight
3 Rounds
Rafa Garcia won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 29, 2025·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Style matchupRafa Garcia: WrestlervsVinc Pichel: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Rafa Garcia wins(70.3%)
Actual result: Rafa Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafa Garcia has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Rafa Garcia
Red Corner
VS
Vinc Pichel
Blue Corner
-330
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+265
(27%)
31
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafa Garcia
oldest →latest
L
vs Drakkar Klose · Jul 22W
vs Maheshate · Dec 22W
vs Clay Guida · Apr 23L
KOvs Grant Dawson · Oct 24W
KOvs Jared Gordon · Sep 25Vinc PichelL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Roosevelt Roberts · Jun 19W
vs Jim Miller · Aug 20W
vs Austin Hubbard · Aug 21L
vs Mark Madsen · Apr 22L
vs Ismael Bonfim · May 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafa GarciaMetricVinc Pichel
4.28
Strikes / min
3.78
4.42
Strikes absorbed / min
3.17
61%
Strike defense
54%
3.22
TDs / 15 min
2.50
77%
Takedown defense
31%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.14evenly matched on net striking+0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafa GarciaVinc Pichel
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafa Garcia(10 fights)Vinc Pichel(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-33.833.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-161.0161.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Rafa Garcia
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10
Vinc Pichel
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights12