Lightweight
3 Rounds
Damir Ismagulov won · U-DEC
UFC Event·Saturday, May 22, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Rafael Alves wins(55.3%)
Actual result: Damir Ismagulov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Damir Ismagulov has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Damir Ismagulov has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Alves
Red Corner
VS
Damir Ismagulov
Blue Corner
+400
(20%)
Vegas Odds
-500
(83%)
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'10"
172.72 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael AlvesL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Nov 21L
KOvs Drew Dober · Jul 22L
vs Nurullo Aliev · Feb 23Damir IsmagulovL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Joel Alvarez · Feb 19W
vs Thiago Moises · Aug 19W
vs Guram Kutateladze · Jun 22L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 22L
vs Grant Dawson · Jul 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael AlvesMetricDamir Ismagulov
1.85
Strikes / min
3.36
3.30
Strikes absorbed / min
2.44
58%
Strike defense
61%
0.29
TDs / 15 min
1.00
44%
Takedown defense
70%
1.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.45Δ 2.37 — meaningful gap+0.92
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael AlvesDamir Ismagulov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Alves(4 fights)Damir Ismagulov(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-52.752.7
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.0-49.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.7-49.7
Rafael Alves
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4
Damir Ismagulov
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights7