Lightweight
3 Rounds
Nurullo Aliev won · M-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 25, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Nurullo Aliev wins(50.1%)
Actual result: Nurullo Aliev wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nurullo Aliev has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Nurullo Aliev has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Alves
Red Corner
VS
Nurullo Aliev
Blue Corner
+155
(39%)
Vegas Odds
-180
(64%)
35
Age
25
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'10"
172.72 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael Alves
oldest →latest
L
vs Damir Ismagulov · May 21W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Nov 21L
KOvs Drew Dober · Jul 22Nurullo AlievW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Joe Solecki · Jan 25W
vs Shem Rock · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael AlvesMetricNurullo Aliev
1.85
Strikes / min
2.72
3.30
Strikes absorbed / min
1.63
58%
Strike defense
58%
0.29
TDs / 15 min
2.12
44%
Takedown defense
80%
1.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.45Δ 2.54 — meaningful gap+1.09
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael AlvesNurullo Aliev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Alves(4 fights)Nurullo Aliev(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-10.610.6
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.749.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.649.6
Rafael Alves
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4
Nurullo Aliev
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3