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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Colby Covington won · U-DEC R5

Elo1491

Elo1491

Rafael Dos AnjosvsColby CovingtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · Saturday, June 9, 2018Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Colby Covington won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Colby Covington wins(54.8%)

Actual result: Colby Covington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Colby Covington at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Dos Anjos

Red Corner

Colby Covington

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22

vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24

KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24

latest

Colby CovingtonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20

vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21

vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22

vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael Dos AnjosMetricColby Covington

3.48

Strikes / min

3.81

3.23

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

60%

Strike defense

54%

1.95

TDs / 15 min

3.64

54%

Takedown defense

68%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.25evenly matched on net striking+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael Dos AnjosColby Covington

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Colby Covington(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael Dos AnjosTargetColby Covington

By target zone

39% acc · 51%

Head

24% acc · 55%

82% acc · 35%

Body

42% acc · 14%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

91% acc · 31%

By position

43% acc · 67%

Distance

32% acc · 91%

100% acc · 30%

Clinch

50% acc · 8%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Dos Anjos rounds

even

Colby Covington rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:43Control

Round 2Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:09Control

Round 3Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:02Control

Round 4Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns3

Control2:14

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:53Control

Round 5Colby Covington edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:49Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

105 / 198

Sig Strikes

99 / 296

52.6%

Sig Str %

32.2%

130 / 223

Total Strikes

142 / 346

3 / 6

TDs

7 / 18

37.5%

TD %

39.8%

Sub Att

Rev

2:14

Ctrl Time

12:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Colby Covington	17 / 57	27 / 69	2 / 4
1	Rafael Dos Anjos	27 / 42	36 / 51	0 / 0
2	Colby Covington	21 / 62	32 / 77	2 / 3
2	Rafael Dos Anjos	20 / 40	25 / 45	0 / 0
3	Colby Covington	29 / 72	39 / 82	0 / 3
3	Rafael Dos Anjos	22 / 44	23 / 45	0 / 0
4	Rafael Dos Anjos	19 / 34	22 / 37	3 / 4
4	Colby Covington	12 / 49	18 / 55	1 / 2
5	Colby Covington	20 / 56	26 / 63	2 / 6
5	Rafael Dos Anjos	17 / 38	24 / 45	0 / 2

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights32

Colby Covington

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17