Lightweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Rafael Dos Anjos won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 19, 2015·Orlando, Florida, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos wins(52.9%)
Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Donald Cerrone has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Dos Anjos
Red Corner
VS
Donald Cerrone
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+150
(40%)
41
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
6'1"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24Donald CerroneL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20L
vs Anthony Pettis · May 20L
KOvs Alex Morono · May 21L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael Dos AnjosMetricDonald Cerrone
3.48
Strikes / min
4.41
3.23
Strikes absorbed / min
4.48
60%
Strike defense
53%
1.95
TDs / 15 min
1.16
54%
Takedown defense
73%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25evenly matched on net striking-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael Dos AnjosDonald Cerrone
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-45.945.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+70.0-70.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Rafael Dos Anjos
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32
Donald Cerrone
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights37