Lightweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Eddie Alvarez won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Thursday, July 7, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos wins(63.6%)
Actual result: Eddie Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Eddie Alvarez has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Dos Anjos
Red Corner
VS
Eddie Alvarez
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
41
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24Eddie Alvarez
oldest →latest
W
vs Gilbert Melendez · Jun 15W
vs Anthony Pettis · Jan 16L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Nov 16W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Dec 17L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael Dos AnjosMetricEddie Alvarez
3.48
Strikes / min
4.32
3.23
Strikes absorbed / min
4.39
60%
Strike defense
55%
1.95
TDs / 15 min
2.92
54%
Takedown defense
92%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25evenly matched on net striking-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael Dos AnjosEddie Alvarez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Eddie Alvarez(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+130.9-130.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+29.0-29.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Rafael Dos Anjos
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32
Eddie Alvarez
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights7