Lightweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Dos Anjos won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 18, 2013·Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos wins(54.6%)
Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Evan Dunham has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Dos Anjos
Red Corner
VS
Evan Dunham
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
41
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24Evan DunhamL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15W
vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16L
KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18L
KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18L
SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael Dos AnjosMetricEvan Dunham
3.48
Strikes / min
5.33
3.23
Strikes absorbed / min
3.54
60%
Strike defense
61%
1.95
TDs / 15 min
1.82
54%
Takedown defense
79%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap+1.79
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael Dos AnjosEvan Dunham
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+28.0-28.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+77.0-77.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Rafael Dos Anjos
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32
Evan Dunham
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17