Welterweight
5 Rounds
Rafael Dos Anjos won · SUB R4
UFC Event·Saturday, May 18, 2019·Rochester, New York, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos wins(54.0%)
Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Rafael Dos Anjos has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Kevin Lee has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).
- Kevin Lee has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Dos Anjos
Red Corner
VS
Kevin Lee
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
41
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24Kevin LeeL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Al Iaquinta · Dec 18W
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21L
SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael Dos AnjosMetricKevin Lee
3.48
Strikes / min
3.88
3.23
Strikes absorbed / min
3.60
60%
Strike defense
50%
1.95
TDs / 15 min
3.18
54%
Takedown defense
75%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25evenly matched on net striking+0.28
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael Dos AnjosKevin Lee
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Kevin Lee(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.9-18.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+15.0-15.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Rafael Dos Anjos
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32
Kevin Lee
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights19