Lightweight
3 Rounds
Khabib Nurmagomedov won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, April 19, 2014·Orlando, Florida, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins(58.0%)
Actual result: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Dos Anjos
Red Corner
VS
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Blue Corner
+275
(27%)
Vegas Odds
-305
(75%)
41
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17W
vs Al Iaquinta · Apr 18W
SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19W
SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael Dos AnjosMetricKhabib Nurmagomedov
3.48
Strikes / min
4.10
3.23
Strikes absorbed / min
1.75
60%
Strike defense
65%
1.95
TDs / 15 min
5.32
54%
Takedown defense
84%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25Δ 2.10 — meaningful gap+2.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael Dos AnjosKhabib Nurmagomedov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+2.3-2.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+24.0-24.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Rafael Dos Anjos
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32
Khabib Nurmagomedov
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights13