Welterweight
3 Rounds
Michael Chiesa won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 25, 2020·Raleigh, North Carolina, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos wins(51.5%)
Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Michael Chiesa has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Dos Anjos
Red Corner
VS
Michael Chiesa
Blue Corner
-225
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+185
(35%)
41
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
6'1"
177.8 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24Michael ChiesaW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24W
vs Court McGee · Jun 25W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael Dos AnjosMetricMichael Chiesa
3.48
Strikes / min
2.02
3.23
Strikes absorbed / min
1.73
60%
Strike defense
57%
1.95
TDs / 15 min
3.11
54%
Takedown defense
65%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25evenly matched on net striking+0.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael Dos AnjosMichael Chiesa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Michael Chiesa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+41.3-41.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-14.014.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Rafael Dos Anjos
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32
Michael Chiesa
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights22