Lightweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Dos Anjos won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 13, 2014·Phoenix, Arizona, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos wins(57.6%)
Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Nate Diaz has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Dos Anjos
Red Corner
VS
Nate Diaz
Blue Corner
-275
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
41
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
6'0"
177.8 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24Nate Diaz
oldest →latest
L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael Dos AnjosMetricNate Diaz
3.48
Strikes / min
4.57
3.23
Strikes absorbed / min
3.77
60%
Strike defense
52%
1.95
TDs / 15 min
1.05
54%
Takedown defense
41%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25evenly matched on net striking+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael Dos AnjosNate Diaz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Nate Diaz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+69.8-69.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-266.0266.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Rafael Dos Anjos
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32
Nate Diaz
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18