Lightweight
5 Rounds
Tony Ferguson won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, November 5, 2016·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Model Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos wins(53.2%)
Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Dos Anjos (53.5%).
- Tony Ferguson has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Dos Anjos
Red Corner
VS
Tony Ferguson
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
41
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22L
vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24L
KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael Dos AnjosMetricTony Ferguson
3.48
Strikes / min
4.91
3.23
Strikes absorbed / min
4.37
60%
Strike defense
55%
1.95
TDs / 15 min
0.39
54%
Takedown defense
66%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25evenly matched on net striking+0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael Dos AnjosTony Ferguson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)Tony Ferguson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-25.425.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+6.0-6.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Rafael Dos Anjos
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights32
Tony Ferguson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24