Flyweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Estevam won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 2, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRafael Estevam: WrestlervsFelipe Bunes: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Rafael Estevam wins(61.6%)
Actual result: Rafael Estevam wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Estevam has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Estevam
Red Corner
VS
Felipe Bunes
Blue Corner
-670
(87%)
Vegas Odds
+490
(17%)
29
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'7"
175.26 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael EstevamW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Charles Johnson · Nov 23W
vs Jesus Aguilar · Feb 25Felipe Bunes
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Joshua Van · Jan 24W
SUBvs Jose Johnson · Jan 25L
vs Edgar Chairez · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael EstevamMetricFelipe Bunes
2.40
Strikes / min
3.17
3.90
Strikes absorbed / min
4.57
45%
Strike defense
47%
4.91
TDs / 15 min
1.08
66%
Takedown defense
40%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.50evenly matched on net striking-1.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael EstevamFelipe Bunes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Estevam(3 fights)Felipe Bunes(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+30.6-30.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-35.035.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Rafael Estevam
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights4
Felipe Bunes
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights4