Flyweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Estevam won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 15, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRafael Estevam: WrestlervsJesus Aguilar: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Rafael Estevam wins(59.1%)
Actual result: Rafael Estevam wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jesus Aguilar has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rafael Estevam has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Rafael Estevam has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Estevam
Red Corner
VS
Jesus Aguilar
Blue Corner
-620
(86%)
Vegas Odds
+460
(18%)
29
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'4"
175.26 cm
Reach
157.48 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael EstevamW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Charles Johnson · Nov 23W
vs Felipe Bunes · Aug 25Jesus Aguilar
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Shannon Ross · Jul 23W
vs Mateus Mendonca · Feb 24W
SUBvs Stewart Nicoll · Aug 24W
vs Luis Gurule · Sep 25L
vs Sumudaerji · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael EstevamMetricJesus Aguilar
2.40
Strikes / min
2.54
3.90
Strikes absorbed / min
2.29
45%
Strike defense
61%
4.91
TDs / 15 min
1.52
66%
Takedown defense
45%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.50Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap+0.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael EstevamJesus Aguilar
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Estevam(3 fights)Jesus Aguilar(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-15.915.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+273.0-273.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Rafael Estevam
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights4
Jesus Aguilar
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights7