Lightweight
3 Rounds
Mauricio Ruffy won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, January 31, 2026·Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, Australia
Style matchupRafael Fiziev: Pressure fightervsMauricio Ruffy: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy wins(54.3%)
Actual result: Mauricio Ruffy wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mauricio Ruffy is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Rafael Fiziev has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Fiziev (52.9%).
- Mauricio Ruffy has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Fiziev
Red Corner
VS
Mauricio Ruffy
Blue Corner
-124
(55%)
Vegas Odds
+106
(49%)
33
Age
29
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael Fiziev
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jul 22L
vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 23L
KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Sep 23L
vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 25W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Jun 25Mauricio Ruffy
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · May 24W
vs James Llontop · Nov 24W
KOvs King Green · Mar 25L
SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael FizievMetricMauricio Ruffy
4.71
Strikes / min
4.19
4.84
Strikes absorbed / min
4.09
49%
Strike defense
58%
0.83
TDs / 15 min
0.00
90%
Takedown defense
85%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.10
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael FizievMauricio Ruffy
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Fiziev(10 fights)Mauricio Ruffy(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+33.1-33.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+77.0-77.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Rafael Fiziev
StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights12
Mauricio Ruffy
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights5