Middleweight
3 Rounds
Andrew Craig won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Wednesday, July 11, 2012·San Jose, California, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(58.8%)
Actual result: Andrew Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Andrew Craig enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Natal
Red Corner
VS
Andrew Craig
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
43
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'1"
195.58 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael NatalL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Uriah Hall · May 15W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17Andrew CraigL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Ronny Markes · Jan 13W
vs Chris Leben · Jul 13L
SUBvs Luke Barnatt · Oct 13L
vs Cezar Ferreira · Jun 14L
KOvs Lyman Good · Jul 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael NatalMetricAndrew Craig
3.10
Strikes / min
2.39
2.48
Strikes absorbed / min
3.01
57%
Strike defense
50%
2.55
TDs / 15 min
0.53
77%
Takedown defense
72%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.62Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap-0.62
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael NatalAndrew Craig
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Natal(10 fights)Andrew Craig(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-0.10.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+27.0-27.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Rafael Natal
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16
Andrew Craig
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights7