Middleweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Natal won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Friday, September 5, 2014·Ledyard, Connecticut, USA, USA
Style matchupRafael Natal: WrestlervsChris Camozzi: Elusive striker
The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.
Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(62.0%)
Actual result: Rafael Natal wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Chris Camozzi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Rafael Natal has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Natal
Red Corner
VS
Chris Camozzi
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
43
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
195.58 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael NatalL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Uriah Hall · May 15W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17Chris CamozziL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Joe Riggs · Feb 16W
vs Vitor Miranda · May 16L
SUBvs Thales Leites · Aug 16L
vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 16L
vs Trevor Smith · May 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael NatalMetricChris Camozzi
3.10
Strikes / min
3.57
2.48
Strikes absorbed / min
2.96
57%
Strike defense
56%
2.55
TDs / 15 min
0.27
77%
Takedown defense
57%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.62evenly matched on net striking+0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael NatalChris Camozzi
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Natal(10 fights)Chris Camozzi(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+13.7-13.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+56.0-56.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Rafael Natal
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16
Chris Camozzi
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights19