Middleweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Natal won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 18, 2013·Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(62.5%)
Actual result: Rafael Natal wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Rafael Natal has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Rafael Natal has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Natal
Red Corner
VS
Joao Zeferino
Blue Corner
-300
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+270
(27%)
43
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
195.58 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael NatalL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Uriah Hall · May 15W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17Joao Zeferino
oldest →latest
L
vs Elias Silverio · Sep 13Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael NatalMetricJoao Zeferino
3.10
Strikes / min
0.83
2.48
Strikes absorbed / min
2.60
57%
Strike defense
48%
2.55
TDs / 15 min
0.50
77%
Takedown defense
50%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.62Δ 2.39 — meaningful gap-1.77
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael NatalJoao Zeferino
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Natal(10 fights)Joao Zeferino(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+20.2-20.2
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.448.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.649.6
Rafael Natal
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16
Joao Zeferino
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach—
Fights2