Middleweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Natal won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 30, 2016·Newark, New Jersey, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(62.7%)
Actual result: Rafael Natal wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Rafael Natal has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rafael Natal has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kevin Casey (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Natal
Red Corner
VS
Kevin Casey
Blue Corner
-175
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
43
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
5'11"
195.58 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael NatalL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Tom Watson · Jan 15W
vs Uriah Hall · May 15L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17Kevin Casey
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Josh Samman · Apr 13W
vs Ildemar Alcantara · Jul 15L
KOvs Sam Alvey · Aug 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael NatalMetricKevin Casey
3.10
Strikes / min
2.27
2.48
Strikes absorbed / min
3.76
57%
Strike defense
46%
2.55
TDs / 15 min
0.79
77%
Takedown defense
27%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.62Δ 2.11 — meaningful gap-1.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael NatalKevin Casey
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Natal(10 fights)Kevin Casey(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+65.2-65.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+53.0-53.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Rafael Natal
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16
Kevin Casey
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights4