Middleweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Natal won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 4, 2012·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRafael Natal: WrestlervsMichael Kuiper: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(58.3%)
Actual result: Rafael Natal wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Michael Kuiper is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Rafael Natal has lost 57% of fights by KO.
- Rafael Natal has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Natal
Red Corner
VS
Michael Kuiper
Blue Corner
-152
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+142
(41%)
43
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
195.58 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael NatalL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Uriah Hall · May 15W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17Michael KuiperL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jared Hamman · Aug 12L
SUBvs Tom Lawlor · Apr 13L
vs Bradley Scott · Oct 13Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael NatalMetricMichael Kuiper
3.10
Strikes / min
3.28
2.48
Strikes absorbed / min
3.62
57%
Strike defense
54%
2.55
TDs / 15 min
2.30
77%
Takedown defense
79%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.62evenly matched on net striking-0.34
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael NatalMichael Kuiper
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Natal(10 fights)Michael Kuiper(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+1.9-1.9
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.249.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.749.7
Rafael Natal
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16
Michael Kuiper
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4