Middleweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Natal won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 6, 2011·Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(71.2%)
Actual result: Rafael Natal wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Paul Bradley has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Rafael Natal has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Natal
Red Corner
VS
Paul Bradley
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
43
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'9"
195.58 cm
Reach
183 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael NatalL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Uriah Hall · May 15W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17Paul Bradley
oldest →latest
L
vs Mike Pierce · Nov 11Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael NatalMetricPaul Bradley
3.10
Strikes / min
2.26
2.48
Strikes absorbed / min
4.13
57%
Strike defense
56%
2.55
TDs / 15 min
1.12
77%
Takedown defense
100%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.62Δ 2.49 — meaningful gap-1.87
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael NatalPaul Bradley
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Natal(10 fights)Paul Bradley(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-17.517.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Rafael Natal
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16
Paul Bradley
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach—
Fights2