Middleweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Natal won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 26, 2013·Chicago, Illinois, USA, USA
Style matchupRafael Natal: WrestlervsSean Spencer: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(69.2%)
Actual result: Rafael Natal wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Sean Spencer enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sean Spencer (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Natal
Red Corner
VS
Sean Spencer
Blue Corner
-235
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+215
(32%)
43
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
5'10"
195.58 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael NatalL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Uriah Hall · May 15W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17Sean SpencerL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Alex Garcia · Mar 14W
vs Paulo Thiago · Sep 14L
vs Cathal Pendred · Jan 15L
KOvs Mike Pyle · Feb 16L
SUBvs Yancy Medeiros · Sep 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael NatalMetricSean Spencer
3.10
Strikes / min
4.24
2.48
Strikes absorbed / min
4.02
57%
Strike defense
60%
2.55
TDs / 15 min
0.14
77%
Takedown defense
68%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.62evenly matched on net striking+0.22
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael NatalSean Spencer
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Natal(10 fights)Sean Spencer(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+1.8-1.8
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.748.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.649.6
Rafael Natal
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16
Sean Spencer
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights8