Middleweight
3 Rounds
Tim Boetsch won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 12, 2016·New York City, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupRafael Natal: WrestlervsTim Boetsch: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Tim Boetsch wins(50.8%)
Actual result: Tim Boetsch wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tim Boetsch is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Rafael Natal has lost 57% of fights by KO.
- Rafael Natal has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Natal
Red Corner
VS
Tim Boetsch
Blue Corner
-145
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+125
(44%)
43
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
195.58 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael NatalL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Tom Watson · Jan 15W
vs Uriah Hall · May 15W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17Tim BoetschL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Josh Samman · Jul 16L
SUBvs Jacare Souza · Feb 17W
KOvs Johny Hendricks · Jun 17L
SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Apr 18L
vs Omari Akhmedov · Mar 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael NatalMetricTim Boetsch
3.10
Strikes / min
2.93
2.48
Strikes absorbed / min
2.90
57%
Strike defense
57%
2.55
TDs / 15 min
1.45
77%
Takedown defense
59%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.62evenly matched on net striking+0.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael NatalTim Boetsch
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Natal(10 fights)Tim Boetsch(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+45.9-45.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+81.0-81.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Rafael Natal
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16
Tim Boetsch
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights20