Middleweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Natal won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 31, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRafael Natal: WrestlervsTom Watson: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(60.2%)
Actual result: Rafael Natal wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Tom Watson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Rafael Natal has lost 57% of fights by KO.
- Rafael Natal has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Rafael Natal has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Natal
Red Corner
VS
Tom Watson
Blue Corner
-135
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+125
(44%)
43
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'1"
195.58 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael NatalL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Uriah Hall · May 15W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17Tom Watson
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Stanislav Nedkov · Feb 13L
vs Thales Leites · Aug 13L
vs Nick Catone · Feb 14W
vs Sam Alvey · Aug 14L
vs Chris Camozzi · Aug 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael NatalMetricTom Watson
3.10
Strikes / min
4.01
2.48
Strikes absorbed / min
4.41
57%
Strike defense
50%
2.55
TDs / 15 min
0.15
77%
Takedown defense
43%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.62Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap-0.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael NatalTom Watson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Natal(10 fights)Tom Watson(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+48.5-48.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-20.020.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Rafael Natal
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16
Tom Watson
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7