Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Rafael Natal has 25pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael NatalL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17 Tor TroengL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Adam Cella · Apr 13L
vs Trevor Smith · Jul 14L
vs Krzysztof Jotko · Oct 14 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael NatalMetricTor Troeng
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.62Δ 2.72 — meaningful gap-2.10
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rafael NatalTor Troeng
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Natal(10 fights)Tor Troeng(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +7.2|Blue -7.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.8|Blue -1.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -42.0|Blue +42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rafael NatalTargetTor Troeng
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rafael Natal edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control2:47
Knockdowns1
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:36Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Rafael Natal edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control3:04
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:34Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Rafael Natal edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control2:12
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:53Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
