Middleweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Natal won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Wednesday, September 4, 2013·Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Tor Troeng wins(51.6%)
Actual result: Rafael Natal wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Rafael Natal has 25pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Rafael Natal
Red Corner
VS
Tor Troeng
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+230
(30%)
43
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
195.58 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael NatalL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Uriah Hall · May 15W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17Tor TroengL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Adam Cella · Apr 13L
vs Trevor Smith · Jul 14L
vs Krzysztof Jotko · Oct 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael NatalMetricTor Troeng
3.10
Strikes / min
1.16
2.48
Strikes absorbed / min
3.26
57%
Strike defense
32%
2.55
TDs / 15 min
0.62
77%
Takedown defense
66%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.62Δ 2.72 — meaningful gap-2.10
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafael NatalTor Troeng
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Natal(10 fights)Tor Troeng(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+19.1-19.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-42.042.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.8-1.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Rafael Natal
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16
Tor Troeng
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach—
Fights4