Lightweight
3 Rounds
Erik Koch won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, February 22, 2014·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRafaello Oliveira: WrestlervsErik Koch: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Erik Koch wins(50.4%)
Actual result: Erik Koch wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafaello Oliveira has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Erik Koch has 70pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Erik Koch (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Rafaello Oliveira
Red Corner
VS
Erik Koch
Blue Corner
+423
(19%)
Vegas Odds
-480
(83%)
44
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafaello Oliveira
oldest →latest
L
vs Andre Winner · Mar 10L
SUBvs Gleison Tibau · May 11L
KOvs Yves Edwards · Oct 11W
vs Yoislandy Izquierdo · Jul 12L
KOvs Edson Barboza · Jul 13Erik Koch
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Daron Cruickshank · May 14W
SUBvs Shane Campbell · May 16L
vs Clay Guida · Jun 17L
vs Bobby Green · Jan 18W
vs Kyle Stewart · Jul 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafaello OliveiraMetricErik Koch
2.19
Strikes / min
2.33
3.38
Strikes absorbed / min
2.82
59%
Strike defense
47%
2.49
TDs / 15 min
1.02
11%
Takedown defense
81%
1.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.19evenly matched on net striking-0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafaello OliveiraErik Koch
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafaello Oliveira(6 fights)Erik Koch(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-46.146.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+56.0-56.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
Rafaello Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights6
Erik Koch
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10