Lightweight
3 Rounds
Rafaello Oliveira won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 7, 2012·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Rafaello Oliveira wins(59.2%)
Actual result: Rafaello Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafaello Oliveira enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Rafaello Oliveira has 33pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Yoislandy Izquierdo has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Yoislandy Izquierdo (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Rafaello Oliveira
Red Corner
VS
Yoislandy Izquierdo
Blue Corner
+170
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-185
(65%)
44
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
184 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafaello OliveiraL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Andre Winner · Mar 10L
SUBvs Gleison Tibau · May 11L
KOvs Yves Edwards · Oct 11L
KOvs Edson Barboza · Jul 13L
KOvs Erik Koch · Feb 14Yoislandy Izquierdo
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Reza Madadi · Apr 12Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafaello OliveiraMetricYoislandy Izquierdo
2.19
Strikes / min
2.93
3.38
Strikes absorbed / min
1.40
59%
Strike defense
26%
2.49
TDs / 15 min
0.00
11%
Takedown defense
50%
1.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.19Δ 2.72 — meaningful gap+1.53
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rafaello OliveiraYoislandy Izquierdo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafaello Oliveira(6 fights)Yoislandy Izquierdo(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-32.332.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+196.0-196.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.9-1.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
Rafaello Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights6
Yoislandy Izquierdo
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach—
Fights2