Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Tony Kelley won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, December 11, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRandy Costa: Pressure fightervsTony Kelley: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Randy Costa wins(50.6%)
Actual result: Tony Kelley wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Kelley is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Randy Costa has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Randy Costa has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Randy Costa
Red Corner
VS
Tony Kelley
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
31
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Switch
5'9"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Randy CostaL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Brandon Davis · Apr 19W
KOvs Boston Salmon · Oct 19W
KOvs Journey Newson · Sep 20L
KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jul 21L
SUBvs Guido Cannetti · Oct 22Tony Kelley
oldest →latest
W
vs Ali AlQaisi · Oct 20L
KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jun 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Randy CostaMetricTony Kelley
6.53
Strikes / min
5.55
7.58
Strikes absorbed / min
4.85
58%
Strike defense
45%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.00
50%
Takedown defense
52%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.05Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap+0.70
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Randy CostaTony Kelley
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Randy Costa(6 fights)Tony Kelley(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-16.316.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-287.0287.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Randy Costa
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6
Tony Kelley
StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3