Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Raphael Assuncao won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 4, 2014·Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, Canada
Style matchupRaphael Assuncao: Well-roundedvsBryan Caraway: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Raphael Assuncao wins(64.0%)
Actual result: Raphael Assuncao wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Raphael Assuncao has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Raphael Assuncao
Red Corner
VS
Bryan Caraway
Blue Corner
-450
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+400
(20%)
43
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'8"
167.64 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Raphael Assuncao
oldest →latest
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20L
KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21W
vs Victor Henry · Oct 22L
SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23Bryan CarawayL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Erik Perez · Jun 14W
vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 15W
vs Aljamain Sterling · May 16L
vs Cody Stamann · Mar 18L
KOvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Raphael AssuncaoMetricBryan Caraway
3.22
Strikes / min
2.53
2.50
Strikes absorbed / min
3.61
66%
Strike defense
54%
1.65
TDs / 15 min
2.57
78%
Takedown defense
80%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72Δ 1.80 — meaningful gap-1.08
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Raphael AssuncaoBryan Caraway
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Bryan Caraway(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+30.3-30.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+105.0-105.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Raphael Assuncao
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights19
Bryan Caraway
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights10