Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Marlon Moraes won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, February 2, 2019·Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Raphael Assuncao wins(56.5%)
Actual result: Marlon Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Marlon Moraes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Raphael Assuncao has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Raphael Assuncao has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Raphael Assuncao
Red Corner
VS
Marlon Moraes
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
43
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'6"
167.64 cm
Reach
170.18 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Raphael Assuncao
oldest →latest
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20L
KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21W
vs Victor Henry · Oct 22L
SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23Marlon MoraesL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jose Aldo · Dec 19L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 20L
KOvs Rob Font · Dec 20L
KOvs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 21L
KOvs Song Yadong · Mar 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Raphael AssuncaoMetricMarlon Moraes
3.22
Strikes / min
3.37
2.50
Strikes absorbed / min
4.53
66%
Strike defense
54%
1.65
TDs / 15 min
0.87
78%
Takedown defense
46%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72Δ 1.88 — meaningful gap-1.16
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Raphael AssuncaoMarlon Moraes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Marlon Moraes(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+82.9-82.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-36.036.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Raphael Assuncao
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights19
Marlon Moraes
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights11