Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Raphael Assuncao won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 11, 2017·Norfolk, Virginia, USA, USA
Style matchupRaphael Assuncao: Well-roundedvsMatthew Lopez: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Raphael Assuncao wins(57.9%)
Actual result: Raphael Assuncao wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Raphael Assuncao has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Lopez (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Raphael Assuncao
Red Corner
VS
Matthew Lopez
Blue Corner
-370
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+310
(24%)
43
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'5"
Height
5'7"
167.64 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Raphael Assuncao
oldest →latest
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20L
KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21W
vs Victor Henry · Oct 22L
SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23Matthew LopezL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Rani Yahya · Jul 16W
vs Mitch Gagnon · Dec 16W
KOvs Johnny Eduardo · Jun 17L
KOvs Alejandro Perez · Apr 18L
vs Brad Katona · Dec 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Raphael AssuncaoMetricMatthew Lopez
3.22
Strikes / min
3.13
2.50
Strikes absorbed / min
3.73
66%
Strike defense
55%
1.65
TDs / 15 min
3.32
78%
Takedown defense
71%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap-0.60
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Raphael AssuncaoMatthew Lopez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Matthew Lopez(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+81.5-81.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
Raphael Assuncao
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights19
Matthew Lopez
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6