Middleweight
3 Rounds
Daniel Kelly won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 4, 2017·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRashad Evans: WrestlervsDaniel Kelly: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Daniel Kelly wins(57.9%)
Actual result: Daniel Kelly wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rashad Evans enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Kelly (53.5%).
- Rashad Evans has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Rashad Evans
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Kelly
Blue Corner
-245
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+205
(33%)
46
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rashad EvansL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Chael Sonnen · Nov 13L
vs Ryan Bader · Oct 15L
KOvs Glover Teixeira · Apr 16L
vs Sam Alvey · Aug 17L
KOvs Anthony Smith · Jun 18Daniel KellyL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Mar 16W
vs Chris Camozzi · Nov 16L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Jun 17L
vs Elias Theodorou · Nov 17L
KOvs Tom Breese · May 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rashad EvansMetricDaniel Kelly
2.14
Strikes / min
3.62
2.42
Strikes absorbed / min
4.64
63%
Strike defense
61%
2.98
TDs / 15 min
1.86
73%
Takedown defense
78%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.28evenly matched on net striking-1.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rashad EvansDaniel Kelly
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rashad Evans(10 fights)Daniel Kelly(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-49.649.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+224.0-224.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.61.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Rashad Evans
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12
Daniel Kelly
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10