Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Rogerio Nogueira won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 2, 2013·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Rashad Evans wins(65.0%)
Actual result: Rogerio Nogueira wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rashad Evans enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Rashad Evans
Red Corner
VS
Rogerio Nogueira
Blue Corner
-525
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+450
(18%)
46
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rashad EvansL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Ryan Bader · Oct 15L
KOvs Glover Teixeira · Apr 16L
vs Daniel Kelly · Mar 17L
vs Sam Alvey · Aug 17L
KOvs Anthony Smith · Jun 18Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16L
KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16W
KOvs Sam Alvey · Sep 18L
KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19L
vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rashad EvansMetricRogerio Nogueira
2.14
Strikes / min
2.43
2.42
Strikes absorbed / min
2.34
63%
Strike defense
59%
2.98
TDs / 15 min
0.64
73%
Takedown defense
62%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.28evenly matched on net striking+0.09
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Rashad EvansRogerio Nogueira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rashad Evans(10 fights)Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+32.4-32.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-133.0133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Rashad Evans
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12
Rogerio Nogueira
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12