Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Sean O'Malley won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 11, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupRaulian Paiva: Pressure fightervsSean O'Malley: Striker
The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.
Model Prediction: Sean O'Malley wins(58.8%)
Actual result: Sean O'Malley wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sean O'Malley is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Raulian Paiva has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Sean O'Malley has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Raulian Paiva has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sean O'Malley (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Raulian Paiva
Red Corner
VS
Sean O'Malley
Blue Corner
+240
(29%)
Vegas Odds
-305
(75%)
30
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'8"
Height
5'11"
175.26 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Raulian Paiva
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Rogerio Bontorin · Aug 19W
KOvs Mark De La Rosa · Feb 20W
vs Zhalgas Zhamagulov · Jul 20W
vs Kyler Phillips · Jul 21L
vs Sergey Morozov · Jun 22Sean O'Malley
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 23W
vs Marlon Vera · Mar 24L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 24L
SUBvs Merab Dvalishvili · Jun 25W
vs Song Yadong · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Raulian PaivaMetricSean O'Malley
4.14
Strikes / min
6.05
5.01
Strikes absorbed / min
3.40
48%
Strike defense
60%
0.65
TDs / 15 min
0.24
77%
Takedown defense
60%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.87Δ 3.52 — meaningful gap+2.65
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Raulian PaivaSean O'Malley
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Raulian Paiva(7 fights)Sean O'Malley(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-50.850.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-14.014.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Raulian Paiva
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights7
Sean O'Malley
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights14