Catch Weight
3 Rounds
Regina Tarin won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 28, 2026·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Style matchupRegina Tarin: Pressure fightervsErnesta Kareckaite: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Regina Tarin wins(59.0%)
Actual result: Regina Tarin wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ernesta Kareckaite has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Regina Tarin (53.5%).
- Ernesta Kareckaite has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Regina Tarin
Red Corner
VS
Ernesta Kareckaite
Blue Corner
+116
(46%)
Vegas Odds
-136
(58%)
21
Age
27
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'9"
167.64 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Regina TarinNo prior UFC fights on record.
Ernesta Kareckaite
oldest →latest
L
vs Dione Barbosa · May 24W
vs Nicolle Caliari · Jan 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Regina TarinMetricErnesta Kareckaite
7.60
Strikes / min
7.28
7.00
Strikes absorbed / min
6.47
57%
Strike defense
49%
1.00
TDs / 15 min
0.75
50%
Takedown defense
81%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.60evenly matched on net striking+0.81
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Regina TarinErnesta Kareckaite
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Regina Tarin(1 fights)Ernesta Kareckaite(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-0.70.7
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.4-49.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.7-49.7
Regina Tarin
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights1
Ernesta Kareckaite
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights3