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Flyweight
3 Rounds
7 days away
Elo1519
Elo1486

Rei TsuruyavsKevin BorjasUFC Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Saturday, August 29, 2026Shanghai, China

Fight begins in
Style matchupRei Tsuruya: WrestlervsKevin Borjas: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

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Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Kevin Borjas has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Rei Tsuruya
Red Corner
VS
Kevin Borjas
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1519
Elo
1486
24
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'5"
172.72 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rei Tsuruya
oldest →
W
vs Carlos Hernandez · Jun 24
L
vs Joshua Van · Mar 25
W
SUBvs Luis Gurule · May 26
latest
Kevin Borjas
oldest →
L
KOvs Alessandro Costa · May 24
W
vs Ronaldo Rodriguez · Mar 25
L
vs Sumudaerji · Aug 25
L
KOvs Imanol Rodriguez · Feb 26
W
DECvs Andre Lima · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rei TsuruyaMetricKevin Borjas
2.24
Strikes / min
3.96
2.01
Strikes absorbed / min
5.64
42%
Strike defense
49%
5.06
TDs / 15 min
0.00
50%
Takedown defense
70%
1.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.23Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap-1.68
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501470149015101530← oldermost recent →
Rei Tsuruya(3 fights)Kevin Borjas(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +32.9|Blue -32.9
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red -14.2|Blue +14.2
Layoff
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Method Projection

Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: Decision.

KO / TKO25%

Neither fighter relies on finishes — likely a decision.

Submission25%

Historical win share: Rei Tsuruya earned 50% of wins by submission.

Decision50%

Both fighters frequently end fights early.

Rei Tsuruya

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights5

Kevin Borjas

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights7