Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Brian Kelleher won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 24, 2018·Orlando, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupRenan Barao: Well-roundedvsBrian Kelleher: Well-rounded
Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.
Model Prediction: Renan Barao wins(58.5%)
Actual result: Brian Kelleher wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Renan Barao enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Renan Barao has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (52.9%).
- Renan Barao has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Renan Barao
Red Corner
VS
Brian Kelleher
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
39
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'6"
Height
5'6"
177.8 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Renan BaraoL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Phillipe Nover · Sep 16L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17L
vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18L
KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19L
vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19Brian KelleherL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Kevin Croom · Jan 22L
SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22L
SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23L
SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Renan BaraoMetricBrian Kelleher
3.78
Strikes / min
3.31
3.90
Strikes absorbed / min
4.59
57%
Strike defense
54%
1.49
TDs / 15 min
1.68
91%
Takedown defense
60%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.12Δ 1.16 — meaningful gap-1.28
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Renan BaraoBrian Kelleher
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Renan Barao(10 fights)Brian Kelleher(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+41.6-41.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+84.0-84.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.8-2.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Renan Barao
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17
Brian Kelleher
StanceSwitch
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights17