Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Luke Sanders won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Sunday, February 17, 2019·Phoenix, Arizona, USA, USA
Style matchupRenan Barao: Well-roundedvsLuke Sanders: Pressure fighter
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Renan Barao wins(55.8%)
Actual result: Luke Sanders wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Renan Barao enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Luke Sanders enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Renan Barao has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Luke Sanders (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Renan Barao
Red Corner
VS
Luke Sanders
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
39
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'6"
177.8 cm
Reach
170.18 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Renan BaraoL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Phillipe Nover · Sep 16L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17L
vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18L
vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18L
vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19Luke SandersL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Andre Soukhamthath · Dec 17W
vs Patrick Williams · Apr 18L
SUBvs Rani Yahya · Aug 18L
SUBvs Nate Maness · Nov 20L
vs Felipe Colares · May 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Renan BaraoMetricLuke Sanders
3.78
Strikes / min
6.61
3.90
Strikes absorbed / min
4.37
57%
Strike defense
50%
1.49
TDs / 15 min
0.71
91%
Takedown defense
72%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.12Δ 2.36 — meaningful gap+2.24
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Renan BaraoLuke Sanders
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Renan Barao(10 fights)Luke Sanders(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+35.6-35.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Renan Barao
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17
Luke Sanders
StanceSouthpaw
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights8