Bantamweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Renan Barao won · SUB R4
UFC Event·Saturday, February 16, 2013·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupRenan Barao: Well-roundedvsMichael McDonald: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Renan Barao wins(58.0%)
Actual result: Renan Barao wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Renan Barao enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Renan Barao has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Renan Barao
Red Corner
VS
Michael McDonald
Blue Corner
-295
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+265
(27%)
39
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Renan BaraoL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17L
vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18L
vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18L
KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19L
vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19Michael McDonald
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Miguel Torres · Apr 12W
SUBvs Brad Pickett · Aug 13L
SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 13W
SUBvs Masanori Kanehara · Jan 16L
KOvs John Lineker · Jul 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Renan BaraoMetricMichael McDonald
3.78
Strikes / min
2.69
3.90
Strikes absorbed / min
2.76
57%
Strike defense
57%
1.49
TDs / 15 min
1.09
91%
Takedown defense
52%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Renan BaraoMichael McDonald
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Renan Barao(10 fights)Michael McDonald(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-91.091.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Renan Barao
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17
Michael McDonald
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights9