Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Renan Barao enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Renan Barao has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mitch Gagnon (53.5%).
- Renan Barao has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Renan BaraoL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17L
vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18L
KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19L
vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19 Mitch GagnonL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Dustin Kimura · Sep 13W
SUBvs Roman Salazar · Oct 14L
vs Matthew Lopez · Dec 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Renan BaraoMetricMitch Gagnon
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.12evenly matched on net striking+0.55
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Renan BaraoMitch Gagnon
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Renan Barao(10 fights)Mitch Gagnon(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +5.3|Blue -5.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.8|Blue -1.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +133.0|Blue -133.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Renan BaraoTargetMitch Gagnon
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:31
Knockdowns1
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:40Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:42
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:20Control
Round 3Renan Barao edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns2
Control1:09
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:15Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
