Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Renan Barao won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 20, 2014·Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupRenan Barao: Well-roundedvsMitch Gagnon: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Renan Barao wins(62.2%)
Actual result: Renan Barao wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Renan Barao enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Renan Barao has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mitch Gagnon (53.5%).
- Renan Barao has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Renan Barao
Red Corner
VS
Mitch Gagnon
Blue Corner
-1000
(91%)
Vegas Odds
+800
(11%)
39
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'5"
177.8 cm
Reach
165.1 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Renan BaraoL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17L
vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18L
vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18L
KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19L
vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19Mitch GagnonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Dustin Kimura · Sep 13W
vs Tim Gorman · Apr 14W
SUBvs Roman Salazar · Oct 14L
vs Matthew Lopez · Dec 16L
vs Cole Smith · May 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Renan BaraoMetricMitch Gagnon
3.78
Strikes / min
2.76
3.90
Strikes absorbed / min
2.21
57%
Strike defense
61%
1.49
TDs / 15 min
1.16
91%
Takedown defense
65%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.12evenly matched on net striking+0.55
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Renan BaraoMitch Gagnon
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Renan Barao(10 fights)Mitch Gagnon(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+39.7-39.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+133.0-133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.8-1.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Renan Barao
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17
Mitch Gagnon
StanceSouthpaw
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights8